Wildland Fire Potential Forecast

Predictive Services of the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) has released its significant wildland fire potential forecast for the period January through April 2014.

Highlights for the Rocky Mountain Area are: “Normal significant wildland fire potential is expected for January through April which indicates the Area is out of its typical fire season.”

According to the forecast, long term drought is still evident across a large portion of the Rocky Mountain Area. Aside from a persistent severe to extreme drought over southeastern Colorado into western Kansas and southwestern Nebraska, gradual improvement has been the overall trend across the Area. Average precipitation was normal to below normal across most of the Area December except above normal over much of Wyoming and southwestern South Dakota. Temperatures were below seasonal averages. For the 30 to 90 day outlook period precipitation is forecast to be near to below average across the Rocky Mountain Area, with temperatures near to below average. Higher elevation fuels this time of year are typically snow covered. Otherwise, lower elevation grasslands across the eastern Plains are cured and snow covered at times. On average for this time little or no fire activity occurs. Any fire occurrences are typically short duration and wind driven in the lower elevations, mainly over the far eastern Plains.

The National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for January-April is available at: http://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/outlooks/monthly_seasonal_outlook.pdf

No Cause for Complacency

The release of this forecast calling for “Normal significant wildland fire potential” for Colorado and the rest of the Rocky Mountain Area is certainly no cause for complacency, as it is “normal” for Colorado to have large wildland fires as early as January.  In fact, three times in the past 12 years the first large fire (fire involving 100+ acres or more) of the year occurred in January, and only twice did the first large fire of the year occur after April.

First Large Wildfire of the Year
Year
Incident Name
Start Date
Size
Structures
County
Cause
2002
Bent’s Old Fort/Old Trail
3/23/2002
500
1
Otero
Human
2003
Fitch Hill
3/30/2003
203
El Paso
Human
2004
Picnic Rock
3/30/2004
8,908
2
Larimer
Human
2005
Pattridge Park
1/18/2005
300
Jefferson
Human
2006
Mauricio Canyon
1/6/2006
3,825
15
Huerfano
Human
2007
Medano Ranch
6/6/2007
307
Alamosa
Human
2008
Snakeweed
4/14/2008
1,272
Las Animas
Human
2009
Olde Stage Fire
1/7/2009
3,008
3
Boulder
Other *
2010
Beaver
5/22/2010
2,641
San Miguel
Human
2011
Sand Creek
2/13/2011
820
Weld
Unknown
2012
Lower North Fork
3/26/2012
4,140
27
Jefferson
Human
2013
Galena
3/15/2013
1,348
0
Larimer
Human
* Downed Power Lines

DFPC will continue to work with its local, state and federal partners to prepare for the 2014 wildfire season with the knowledge that the first large fire of the year can occur at any time.

The next National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook will be issued on February 1, 2014.